Entries tagged with superdelegates

Entry tags:

Superdelegate count at the time of the second primary debates

Biden - 27
Harris - 19
Booker - 18
Sanders - 10
Warren - 10
Klobuchar - 6
O'Rourke - 6
Castro - 4
Inslee - 4
Bullock - 3
Buttigieg - 2
Delaney - 2
Gillibrand - 2
Bennet - 1
Gabbard - 1
Hickenlooper - 1
Moulton - 1
Ryan - 1

~647 uncommitted

Under 2020 rules superdelegates may only vote on the 2nd ballot or later. The exact number of delegates needed to nominate on any ballot is TBA but is no less than 1885 on the 1st ballot and 2267 on subsequent ballots.

Entry tags:

Superdelegate count at the time of the first primary debates

Biden - 23
Booker - 18
Harris - 15
Sanders - 9
Klobuchar - 6
O'Rourke - 6
Warren - 6
Castro - 4
Inslee - 4
Bullock - 3
Buttigieg - 2
Delaney - 2
Gillibrand - 2
Swalwell - 2
Bennet - 1
Gabbard - 1
Hickenlooper - 1
Moulton - 1
Ryan - 1

~658 uncommitted

Under 2020 rules superdelegates may only vote on the 2nd ballot or later. The exact number of delegates needed to nominate on any ballot is TBA but is no less than 1885 on the 1st ballot and 2267 on subsequent ballots.

Current Mood: aggravated

Entry tags:

Not that anyone cares...

... but my current 1st ballot estimate:

Clinton - 2336 (1810 pledged)
Sanders - 1567 (1521 pledged)

leaving Clinton still 47 delegates short at this time.

Regardless of any delegate counts I would like to encourage everybody in CA (and other states voting tomorrow) to vote anyway, if for no other reason that non-Presidential races are very important and your vote actually has a likely greater effect in those.

Entry tags:

Following Kentucky and Oregon:

769 pledged delegates remain (including 9 OR delegates that are too close to call at this hour).

Clinton needs 32% of these for a majority of all pledged delegates. Sanders needs 68%.

Current Mood: irritated

Entry tags:

Superdelegate Comparisons

I keep seeing really terrible superdelegate comparisons to 2008. So here is one that is actually surprisingly close to the current numbers.

Entry tags:

Democratic delegate update after New Hampshire

Sanders got 15 pledged delegates from New Hampshire, and Clinton got 9. This brings the overall delegate total, including unpledged superdelegates, to:

Clinton - 412
Sanders - 50
(325 uncommitted)

2382 delegates needed to nominate.

The next Democratic delegate selection event is the Nevada caucuses on Saturday, 20 February, with 35 pledged delegates at stake.

Entry tags:

Iowa Caucus Results (Democrats)

PSA: The winner of Iowa will determine approximately one national convention delegate. Iowa pledged Democratic delegate projection at this hour:

Clinton - 22
Sanders - 21
(1 too close to call)

And even that's just a projection. The actual delegates won't even start to be allocated until the end of April. (Contrast with a primary state like New Hampshire, where the delegates will be allocated immediately.)

The overall delegate picture, with 2382 delegates needed to win.

Clinton - 391
Sanders - 34
(330 uncommitted, 1 too close to call)

Entry tags:

Delegate update on the eve of the Iowa caucuses

Clinton - 348
Sanders - 13
O'Malley - 3
(349 uncommitted)

2383 needed to nominate.

Note: All delegates so far are unpledged "superdelegates". This will not be the case after the caucuses.

There is no Republican delegate update since nobody has any yet.

Current Mood: apathetic

Entry tags:

Primary Debate

My take on tonight's debate is that I don't vote until June ffs.

(Delegate update: Clinton 195, Sanders 3, O'Malley 1.)

Entry tags:

Counting 2016 Superdelegates

Your friendly reminder that private superdelegate commitments are not particularly meaningful and not worth tracking since if somebody else starts winning people will switch their votes anyway. See, for instance, this article.

I don't really think that a Biden candidacy would bring anything much to the table but "inevitability" remains a shitty reason to support a candidate.

Clinton is still the overwhelming favorite and will almost certainly receive the vast majority of support from superdelegates, but I don't count chickens before they hatch.

At this time, Clinton has the *public* support of 141 delegates, O'Malley has 1, and Sanders has 1. Biden would start with at least 3 if he ran.