Martin's DW

Biden - 27
Harris - 19
Booker - 18
Sanders - 10
Warren - 10
Klobuchar - 6
O'Rourke - 6
Castro - 4
Inslee - 4
Bullock - 3
Buttigieg - 2
Delaney - 2
Gillibrand - 2
Bennet - 1
Gabbard - 1
Hickenlooper - 1
Moulton - 1
Ryan - 1

~647 uncommitted

Under 2020 rules superdelegates may only vote on the 2nd ballot or later. The exact number of delegates needed to nominate on any ballot is TBA but is no less than 1885 on the 1st ballot and 2267 on subsequent ballots.

It's too soon to endorse a 2020 presidential candidate, but Sen. Warren is making a very, very compelling case for my vote.

Fully funding public land management agencies, eliminating the infrastructure and maintenance backlog on our public lands, zeroing out national park user fees, and unlocking inaccessibly checkerboarded public lands? This is basically directly pandering to me. Other candidates, take note.

Crossposted from Acrophilia.

It's always fun on Election Night to see the networks balancing the urge to be first in calling a winner with the need to be sufficiently cautious and not miscall. In 2000, the former prevailed with the infamous premature Florida calls. In 2002, the networks overcorrected, taking nearly an hour to call a Virginia Senate race with no Democratic candidate. Since then, we've been moving back to faster calls.

This year the most notable gaffe was in a southern New Mexico House race, which networks called for Yvette Herrell (R) before realizing that there were about six thousand outstanding ballots in Doña Ana County. When counted, these (unsurprisingly) put Xochita Torres Small (D) over the top. Another error occurred in the Arizona Secretary of State race, which appears to be a case of underestimating just how Democratic the late-counted vote in Arizona was. Both California and Arizona take a while to count all of their votes, and the votes that get counted on Election Night tend to be more Republican by quite a few percentage points than the remainder.

I get frustrated when I hear people refer to calls—either by the networks or the usually-more-cautious AP—as "official". From a legal perspective, election results are only official when certified, which can take anywhere from a week to a month, depending on the state. Projected winners are just that, a projection that when all of the votes are counted, X will win. (And on Election Night, we sometimes saw TV commentators committing the even greater sin of deeming an early Republican lead in the Montana Senate race meaningful without noting that the biggest counties yet to report were consistently Democratic.)

Of course, waiting for states to finish counting prevents us from having instant hot takes about what the election means. Hell, why wait for the West to even start reporting when you can extrapolate based on early returns from the rest of the country? (Democrats, of course, ended up gaining 10-12 House seats and 2 Senate seats just in Western states.)

Election projections are fun. But as a news consumer, be smart about how you interpret them.

Acta est fabula. Plaudite.

We're all fucked.

Roe v. Wade is done. Gay rights and voting rights are fucked. The death penalty has just gotten a big green light forward.

It is unlikely that Senate Dems can do much of anything to block the resultant nominee but the Judicial Reorganization Act of 2021 absolutely needs to be an issue in the 2020 primaries.

In the last fifteen years we're going to move from the center of the Court being Sandra Day O'Connor to John Roberts.

I've seen several hot takes about California midterm primary turnout, so this seems a good time to note that there's an estimated 2.6 million votes remaining to count statewide.

GO AWAY FOREVER!

INT. FBI, SUMMER 2016

Mr. MORDEN: What do you want?

The House Energy and Commerce Committee spent about three hours debating an amendment to retitle the bill the "Republican Pay More For Less Act".

To everybody going through the list of introduced bills and freaking out about random ones: Stop. This isn't healthy.

Some tools to help you determine which House bills are actually a threat:

• Bills scheduled for floor action


• Upcoming House committee meetings

There is a lot to be upset about right now, and a lot worth actually contacting your Representative about. Don't lose focus and worry about low-threat bills.